Germany: No increase among adolescents
The latest Drug Affinity Study shows higher use among 18–25-year-olds than a decade ago, while adolescent use has not increased. Frankfurt’s 2024 MoSyD survey points in the same direction, reporting new lows among 15–18-year-olds. In short: no youth “boom,” just a modest uptick among young adults — a pattern also reflected in the new figures from the Federal Institute for Public Health (BIÖG). At the same time, evidence at home and abroad suggests that clear legal channels can shrink the illicit market over time. Tracking this shift in sources of supply will be a core focus of the evaluation.
Canada: Youth stable; edibles as the outlier
The evaluation will ultimately show what this means for Germany, but Canada offers a useful benchmark: since 2018, the share of illicit purchases has fallen to around three percent — a strong sign that legal channels can displace black markets. Youth prevalence has remained broadly stable, while product use shifted after edibles were introduced — a pattern that matters less for Germany, where edibles aren’t permitted under the CanG. For Germany’s assessment, the key question is whether non-commercial clubs and home growing deliver the intended protections without introducing new risks.
Uruguay: A steady state model
A quick look at Uruguay rounds out the picture. As the first country to legalise adult-use in 2013, it provides valuable lessons. Despite early concerns, the state-regulated model — home grow, clubs and pharmacies — has not produced a sustained increase in youth consumption. In practice, design matters more than the legal label: channels, product rules and prevention make the difference.
Evaluation: Data before interpretation
How will Germany’s evaluation proceed? By law, there’s a phased timetable: an initial assessment is due by 1 October 2025, focused on consumption bans around schools (§5 KCanG) and their impact on child and youth protection. An interim report follows by 1 April 2026, including effects on cannabis-related organised crime. The final report is due by 1 April 2028. The EKOCAN consortium, commissioned by the Health Ministry, coordinates secondary data, original surveys and market monitoring.
Evidence-based adjustment, not symbolic debate
That sequence is right for evidence-based policy: measure first, then adjust. Expect sober findings — on real youth trends, child and youth protection, and easing pressure on the illicit market. The open question is how federal and state governments will weigh the data — and whether they’ll fine-tune policy consistently in line with the evidence.